The Western Hoser

It’s March 11, 2025, and the Canada-US trade war is a mess that just took a wild turn. Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to 1.5 million US homes on March 10, pushing the US to double Canadian steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%—until Ford suspended it today after talks, and Trump hinted he’d “probably” ease off. Canada’s still got 25% tariffs on up to CA$155 billion (US$106 billion) in US goods, and CA$10 billion in Canadian sales are already toast, with autos and agriculture next up. But here’s the problem: retaliatory tariffs don’t work. They just punish Canadian businesses and consumers while the US President taxes his own people. Instead of playing this losing game, Canada should take a different approach—dropping its own trade barriers, skipping the import tariffs, and letting the US dig its own economic hole.

How We Got Here

The trouble began on February 1, 2025, when the US imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods (10% on energy) under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, also roping in Mexico and China. Canada and Mexico managed to stall enforcement for a month by offering border security concessions, but on March 4, the tariffs took full effect. Canada responded with 25% tariffs on CA$30 billion (US$20.6 billion) worth of US goods—orange juice, coffee, and more—while threatening broader measures if the US refused to back down.

Then it got wild. On March 10, Ontario Premier Doug Ford dropped a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to 1.5 million US homes in Michigan, Minnesota, and New York, raking in $300,000-$400,000 daily. The US retaliated March 11, announcing steel and aluminum tariffs would jump to 50% starting March 12, but Ford suspended the surcharge that afternoon after a call with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who set a March 13 meeting. Trump’s now saying he’ll “probably” ease off the 50% hike—nothing’s locked yet. Automakers snagged an April 2 delay for USMCA-compliant autos and parts, while Ford’s still vowing “no retreat” on the broader fight. The US Preisdent keeps tossing “51st state” jabs, eyeing our auto and agriculture sectors next, and Canada’s clutching its mineral sovereignty. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce clocks CA$10 billion in losses, stocks are down 3% this week, and this $2 trillion trade lifeline—75-80% of our exports south, 15-20% theirs north—is choking.

Tariffs Are an Economic Gut Punch

Both economies are suffering, but Canada is taking the bigger hit. The Bank of Canada’s latest projections (March 7) predict a 3% GDP contraction if this drags on for a year—better than the initial 8% scare, but still brutal, particularly for Ontario’s auto industry and Alberta’s energy sector. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates another CA$10 billion in losses within six months.

The April 2 auto delay’s a breather, but supply chains—like F-150 parts ping-ponging the border—are still snarled. Michigan’s exports are down 10%, Texas and Ohio ache, but Canada’s economy, a tenth the US size, is reeling harder. The 2018 tariff spat cost US farmers $27 billion—chump change next to this—but our retaliation just screws our own people more.

Strategic Blunders and a Broken USMCA

This isn’t just cash—it’s a strategic faceplant, and Canada’s the one eating dirt. The USMCA, signed in 2020, was built to shield North America from China. Now it’s fraying—Canada and Mexico fired up dispute panels March 5, and with a 2026 review looming, it’s on thin ice. The EU offered mediation March 9, but both sides said no, stuck in dead-end talks. The US fentanyl and migrant excuse? Flimsy—Mexico’s got 98% of busts, Canada’s at 0.2%, and 23,000 border hops here in 2024 don’t touch Mexico’s 1.5 million. Tariffs fix nothing; they just kneecap an ally.

Trudeau’s proroguing Parliament until March 24 axed border security cash the US wanted, leaving us toothless. Then Mark Carney got crowned Liberal leader March 9—not elected, just anointed by party suits. This globalist ex-banker (Bank of Canada, Bank of England) talks big, but Léger’s March 10 poll has Conservatives at 39%, Liberals at 33%—Pierre Poilievre’s still got the edge. Carney’s “world stage” polish might flop with Canadians fed up with elites, and his lack of a voter mandate makes him a shaky bet against the US. We’re bargaining from a hole.

Free Trade Is the Answer

Here’s the plain truth: tariffs don’t work. The Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 tanked the world economy—sound familiar? The Peterson Institute says a five-year tariff slugfest costs the US 1.2% GDP and Canada 2.5%—we’re hit harder, no contest. That April 2 auto delay? A crumb, not a cure. Border fixes need security—Canada’s ready if the US would focus. The USMCA’s there to use, not trash. Polls say 60% of Canadians want talks, not tariffs, but Carney’s got to deliver, not preen. The US can weather this; Canada’s smaller boat’s sinking faster.

So why play their game? Instead of taxing our own citizens with import tariffs, Canada should do the opposite—open our markets, attract investment, and make our businesses more competitive. Let the US President tax Americans if he wants, but Canada should be the smart player, not the reactive one.

The Bottom Line

As of March 11, 2025, this Canada-US trade war is a runaway disaster. CA$10 billion in sales are already toast, GDP’s shrinking, prices spiking, and the USMCA’s cracking. Carney’s unelected Liberal gig on March 9—33% to Poilievre’s 39%—won’t save us from a stronger US hand. The April 2 delay’s a tease—fentanyl and migrants ain’t budging. Canada should ditch its tariffs, skip the retaliation trap, and let the US tax itself silly. Anything else is dumb politics screwing our workers, shoppers, and businesses. Let’s hope someone in Ottawa’s listening.